Joining the bloc would undermine Canada’s global autonomy precisely at a moment when independence and flexibility are strategic assets. Ottawa must deepen its partnership with the EU without joining it, while continuing to build partnerships abroad as an independent middle power.
Originaly published by the Hill Times. Link to article: https://www.hilltimes.com/2026/04/27/why-joining-the-eu-would-undermine-canadas-global-autonomy/500788/
VANCOUVER, B.C.—The idea is seductive. Confronted with an erratic Washington that continues to use tariffs as a weapon, Canadians are looking at the Atlantic and asking: what if we belong there?
Recent polls by Nanos Research and Spark Advocacy found Canadians are warming up to the idea of formal European Union membership. Some European leaders, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb, have also endorsed Canada’s formal integration into the EU.
The instinct is understandable. Canada and the EU share similar values, history, culture, and interests in a rules-based international order. But the conclusion does not follow. In his speech in Davos earlier this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the world is in the midst of “a rupture, not a transition,” and many countries are coming to the conclusion that they must develop strategic autonomy. This is the correct diagnosis. For Canada, strategic autonomy is the correct response.
Joining the bloc would undermine Canada’s global autonomy precisely at a moment when independence and flexibility are strategic assets. Ottawa must deepen its partnership with the EU without joining it, while continuing to build partnerships abroad as an independent middle power.
The case for EU membership rests on two key arguments: economic security and security alignment. But Canada has developed a strategic partnership model where these benefits can be captured without formally joining the bloc.
On economic partnership, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has eliminated 98 per cent of tariffs between Canada and the EU across goods, services, and investments. On security, NATO has provided Canada and the EU with a collective security framework for over seven decades. Recently, Canada joined the SAFE instrument, which gives Canada access to a 150-billion euro defence procurement program. These frameworks show that Canada can achieve deep integration with the EU without joining it.
Under EU law, trade policy and negotiations are the exclusive purview of the EU. As a member state, existing trade agreements such as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would either need to be renegotiated within the EU framework, or abandoned altogether.
Consider CUSMA, which shields roughly 86 to 90 per cent of Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs, equivalent to 19 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Canada would lose that protection and be subject to the EU’s less favourable trade relationships with the U.S. Canada would also have to leave the CPTPP, which covers 580 million consumers across key Indo-Pacific economies.
The global economic centre of gravity is shifting. According to Goldman Sachs and PwC, by mid century, the top five global economic powers will be dominated by the Indo-Pacific countries: China, India, and Indonesia. Joining the EU would mean that Canada would lose the power to negotiate trade agreements with these countries in ways that reflect its national interests.
The Common Foreign and Security Policy requires member states to align their foreign policy positions with the EU on issues such as sanctions, state recognition, United Nations votes, and responses to international conflicts. As a member state, Canada would face greater pressure to align its foreign policy positions with Brussels. The creation of the UN Peacekeeping mission, our diplomatic re-engagement with China in the 1970s, and the 1997 Land Mines Treaty show that this country’s global strength comes not from the size of our military or economy, but from our ability to act independently and serve as an honest broker when it matters most.
EU membership would not only restrain what Canada can do. It would strip away one of its greatest international assets.
Canada should continue to deepen its partnership with the EU without joining it.
On trade, we can work together with the EU to strengthen CETA. The European Commission found that 40 per cent of eligible Canadian exporters have not claimed CETA tariff reductions. Ottawa should also continue to deepen security partnerships under existing frameworks.
Finally, this country must continue to pursue its current path of global diversification, deepening partnerships with key partners globally, while maintaining its status as an independent middle power. Canada’s future should not be confined to Europe. It must be global.
Carney has called Canada the “most European country outside of Europe.” The affinity is real. But Canada does not need to join the EU to be in Europe. It can do so as a partner, not a member.
Luthfi Dhofier is president of the Canadian International Council Vancouver and CEO of Meridian Gate Advisory. He has co-authored and edited two books on human security, and writes on international affairs and trade.
The Hill Times